Weekly Round Up of Articles

April 3, 2026

Hope everyone had a wonderful week. We wanted to share our current thoughts and articles that can benefit your planning outcomes.

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Market Summary: Week of March 30 – April 3, 2026

If this week felt a bit confusing from a market perspective, you’re not alone.

Geopolitics Dominates as Q1 Closes with Volatile Rebound

The final week of the first quarter of 2026 remained firmly in the grip of the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. Surging oil prices, inflation concerns, and shifting hopes for de-escalation created a classic risk-on/risk-off environment. Markets started the shortened trading week (closed Friday for Good Friday) on the defensive but delivered a powerful relief rally mid-week on signals that diplomatic efforts might shorten the conflict. Overall, major U.S. indexes posted modest net gains for the week, though they remained well below recent highs and deep in correction territory for the quarter.

Key Themes: Oil Shock and Diplomatic Whiplash

Energy markets were the clear focal point. West Texas Intermediate crude pushed above $100–$104, while Brent crude traded north of $110 at peaks, driven by disruptions and fears of prolonged conflict. This fueled broad inflation worries and weighed on growth-sensitive sectors early in the week. Energy stocks outperformed significantly, while technology and growth names faced pressure from higher discount rates and AI-related capex concerns.

Investor sentiment flipped rapidly: early-week selling gave way to optimism on Tuesday amid White House comments on “productive conversations,” only for some volatility to return later as President Trump’s remarks suggested the timeline for resolution could stretch. The VIX remained elevated, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.

Bonds, Yields & Policy Outlook

Treasury yields seesawed with the news flow — initially rising on inflation risks from energy prices, then easing as growth concerns resurfaced. The 10-year yield traded in the 4.3–4.4% range. Fed officials continued to emphasize a data-dependent approach, acknowledging upside risks to inflation while watching for any softening in the labor market. Markets scaled back expectations for aggressive near-term rate cuts.

Economic data points (including manufacturing readings and private payroll figures) showed underlying resilience but highlighted price pressures.

Sector & Asset Class Snapshot

Standouts: Energy and materials led amid the commodity rally. Small caps showed relative strength at times.
Underperformers: Technology, communication services, and other growth areas lagged earlier in the period.
Commodities: Oil was the dominant winner (up dramatically year-to-date), while precious metals were mixed between inflation hedging and safe-haven flows.
International: Developed markets were mixed; emerging markets faced broader pressure, though some AI-exposed Asian names held up better. Europe showed steadier performance relative to the U.S.

Q1 in review highlighted a stark divergence: commodities (led by energy) were the clear outperformer, while U.S. large-cap growth — particularly the “Magnificent 7” — suffered notable drawdowns.

What’s Next?

With the quarter behind us, attention turns to upcoming economic releases (including the March jobs report) and any concrete developments on the diplomatic front. A sustained de-escalation could ease energy-driven inflation risks and support a broader recovery. Conversely, prolonged conflict keeps recession and stagflation risks on the table.

Volatility is likely to stay elevated until clearer signals emerge. Investors may want to focus on portfolio diversification, monitoring oil price stability, yield movements, and corporate earnings resilience in the coming weeks.

This environment underscores how quickly geopolitics can reshape market narratives. As always, maintain perspective, stick to your long-term plan, and avoid emotional decisions driven by headline volatility.

Note: Performance figures are based on reported closing levels; markets move fast and past results do not guarantee future performance.

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